A highly entertaining and informative (and long) read on the history of energy, climate, cars and Tesla by Tim Urban at “Wait But Why.” Elon Musk participated in the drafting of the post. I was particularly struck by this nugget on climate history:
18,000 years ago, global temperatures were about 5ºC lower than the 20th century average. That was enough to put Canada, Scandinavia, and half of England and the US under a half a mile of ice. That’s what 5ºC can do.8
100 million years ago, temperatures were 6-10ºC higher than they are now—and there were palm trees on the poles, no permanent ice anywhere, ocean levels were 200 meters higher, and this kind of shit was happening:
So we’re currently in this not-that-big window we probably should try to stay in:
I recommend reading the whole thing. Happy Friday!
Some interesting nuggets from the EV Iron Man. For example, it sounds like the falcon doors on the new all-electric SUV — the Model X — caused the big-time delays on getting the vehicle rolled out:
Getting that right and making sure it works really well and isn’t a gimmick but is a fundamental improvement in utility and aesthetics for the cars, is extremely difficult. There’s a reason other people haven’t done this. And then the second row seats on the Model X are a piece of sculptural beauty. They’re amazing. They’re the nicest second row seats you’ve ever seen in any car, ever. That actually might have been harder than the door. And there are some other things about the X that people don’t know about yet.
Now I’m curious about being a backseat driver in that car. And then Musk discusses the need to hurry up his mass-market EV, the $35,000 Model III that will go 200 miles on a charge but won’t be delivered until 2017 (if we’re lucky):
There are things we could do with the Model III platform that are really adventurous but would put the schedule at risk. So what we’re going to do is have something that’s going to be an amazing car but it won’t be the most adventurous version the Model III to being with. But we will then have the more different version of the Model III, on the Model III platform, following the initial version.
David Baker in the San Francisco Chronicle criticized Musk’s admission here that later models of the III will be better, arguing that it will scare people away from buying the first year’s model. But I disagree. There’s so much pent-up demand for a mass-market EV that Tesla won’t have any difficulty selling this model.
Finally, there’s Tesla’s play to be an energy storage provider: Musk promises to deliver home batteries in about six months, with an unveiling in another month or so.
All in all, lots happening at the company trying to change the world.
A satire waiting to happen:
As a follow-up to my post on Elon Musk and Lyndon Rive’s talk at the Public Utilities Commission on Thursday, a few more comments stood out to me that may be worth relating:
- Tesla came within a few days of going bankrupt in Christmas 2008. The company secured a round of funds at the last minute. This drama was captured in the movie “Revenge of the Electric Car,” which is worth watching if you haven’t seen it. (It also captures Musk’s dysfunctional private life, which seemed like too much info for my tastes).
- Musk was convinced that Tesla and SpaceX (his rocket company) would fail. He did think SolarCity would succeed, but only because he had confidence in his cousin Lyndon. So much for the myth of the starry-eyed entrepreneur who bends reality to fit the vision.
- Musk launched Tesla not because he loved cars necessarily but because he identified the lack of sustainable energy as the critical challenge facing humankind. Energy storage and alternative-fueled cars are critical to addressing the problem. How many successful entrepreneurs start their companies not out of love of the product but because they believe it will address a critical environmental and societal need? My guess is Musk is unique — or at least unique in the sense that he’s been successful so far.
- Musk feels that burning oil for energy is a waste of a good product. He thinks oil has a higher value in the long term for plastics. He likened oil consumption for transportation to burning the furniture in your house for firewood.
- Along these lines, Musk wryly noted that one of the raw materials for batteries includes a byproduct of coal. But just a bit, he said.
- Musk foresees used Tesla batteries, once they’re no longer useful for driving but still have 60% capacity, being deployed for stationary energy storage. Either that or they’ll be completely recycled. Either way, he sees no waste resulting from the batteries.
- Tesla is experimenting with battery swapping, which takes 90 seconds to do (quicker than refilling a tank with gas). They will begin soon on the LA to San Francisco route to see if it’s popular. Personally, I don’t see how the ownership model works for this process. If you give up your Tesla car battery somewhere along Interstate 5, and you’ve paid tens of thousands of dollars for that battery as part of the car purchase, how do you know your new battery is just as good? It only seems like it could work if you lease your battery, but that business model did not work for Better Place.
Musk is under a lot of scrutiny these days given the high-flying success of Tesla (the stock is up over 600% in the last twelve months), so his comments can make an impact on the electric vehicle market just through the media attention they receive. But it’s worth giving his words and experience thought, given how he’s revolutionized the electric vehicle market — and soon the energy storage one — so far.
Today I heard a panel presentation at the California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) with Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, and Lyndon Rive, Elon’s cousin and CEO of SolarCity. I deal with a lot of climate-friendly businesses in my line of work, but Elon Musk is the one business leader with products (electric vehicles and batteries) that actually have the capability of saving the world. Electric vehicles mean two things for fighting climate change: 1) they represent a switch from transportation fossil fuels to electricity and 2) they offer an investment in battery technology that could enable 100% clean, renewable electricity (for when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing). Global climate change solved!
So I was keen to hear Mr. Musk’s take on battery research and the future of EVs. Some highlights from the panel discussion, which also included PUC President Micheal Peevey:
- Musk noted that the raw material cost of batteries is about $60-$70 per kilowatt hour, and he believes his new battery “gigafactory” can get the price down to near that level. Right now batteries are about $400 per kilowatt hour, which for a 24 kilowatt Nissan LEAF means the battery alone costs $9,600. Bringing it down to $100/kwh means shaving $7,200 off the cost of the LEAF. Or perhaps more importantly, for the same cost you could get a 96 kilowatt battery in a LEAF, enabling a range of over 300 miles per charge. That’s a game-changer for EV adoption.
- Lyndon Rive complained that solar PV customers who have a battery pack for nighttime or backup energy are currently having to wait up to 8 months for the utility to connect the system. To which Musk commented in disbelief, “that’s crazy.” I guess utilities have no incentive to hasten their inevitable demise, but this needs to change.
- Musk envisions home battery packs to go with rooftop solar that would be maybe three inches thick and attach to a garage wall. Otherwise, he said, “they can’t take up the guest room.”
Overall, Musk and Rive noted that EVs and rooftop solar still represent a tiny fraction for consumers, with rooftop solar outpaced by new home construction nationwide and EVs less than .1% of new car sales right now. We have a long way to go, but it’s good to know we have dedicated business people working to solve these problems and export California technologies and innovation around the world.