Category Archives: Renewable Energy
As 2018 nears its end, here are my Top 6 developments in climate & energy policy this year:
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- Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions increase. Let’s start with the bad news for 2018: emissions are rising like a “speeding freight train,” primarily due to more coal-fired power coming on line for India and China, plus more energy use in the United States. Emissions are expected to increase 2.7 percent in 2018, according to research published by the Global Carbon Project. Meanwhile, a U.N. report in October indicated that the world may have just about a dozen more years to get emissions under control enough to avert disastrous warming. These reports should be concerning to everyone.
- Solar PV hits policy and deployment bumps but with long-term growth potential. With declining policy support worldwide, including costly tariffs on solar PV in the U.S., solar PV leaders have seen a downturn in 2018, for the first time in recent memory. Globally, according to the Frost & Sullivan (F&S) report Global Renewable Energy Outlook, 2018, the world saw 90 gigawatts (GW) of new solar installations for 2018, which was a slight year-on-year decrease. Overall though, renewable capacity will see 13.3% annual growth in 2018. The report authors expect global investment in renewable energy for the year to be $228.3 billion, a slight increase of 0.7% over 2017. In the U.S., according to latest industry figures, the third quarter saw installed solar PV capacity experience a 15% year-over-year decrease and a 20% quarter-over-quarter decrease. However, total installed U.S. solar PV capacity is expected to more than double over the next five years. Overall, the picture is concerning but with a potentially positive long-term outlook.
- EV sales increase worldwide, with 1 million in the U.S. and the Tesla Model 3 finally unveiled. The chart below tells the largely encouraging story:
China leads the pack with 40% of all sales. Here in California, sales just reached half a million, with one million nationwide. Prices continue to fall, and the Tesla Model 3 became the #6 top-selling car in the U.S. in November. Of all the climate change news, this progress on vehicle electrification may be the most hopeful, although we’ll need to see even more rapid deployment over the next decade to get growing worldwide transportation emissions under control.
- Electrification of transportation spreads to trucks, buses and scooters. The EV revolution has spread, with cheaper, more powerful batteries now making electric “micromobility” options feasible, such as e-bikes and e-scooters. 2018 was truly the year of the e-scooter, when it comes to city streets. And on the heavy-duty side, companies are unveiling previously unheard of electric models, such as Daimler Trucks North America making the first delivery of an all-electric delivery truck, the Freightliner eCascadia, while the California Air Resources Board last week enacted a new rule requiring transit buses to be all-electric by 2040. All told, it’s a positive development for low-carbon transportation.
- Movement to legalize apartments near transit in California and across the U.S. All the electrification we can muster on transportation won’t matter much if we don’t decrease overall driving miles. It’s a particular problem in the U.S., with so many of our major cities built around solo vehicle trips. So it was encouraging to see California attempt to legalize apartments near major transit with Scott Wiener’s failed SB 827 earlier this year (which started a productive conversation) and now a potentially viable version in SB 50. The movement is catching on around the country, as Minneapolis just voted to end single-family zoning. It’s long overdue and our only real hope to decrease driving miles.
- Trump rollback proposals increase but face judicial setbacks. Trump’s attack on environmental protections made news all year, particularly his attempted rollback of clean vehicle fuel economy standards. The only bright spot is that many of his regulatory rollbacks are sloppy and getting shot down in the courts, as my colleague Dan Farber noted in a report and recent Legal Planet post. And with Democrats set to control the House of Representatives next month, pro-environment legislators are set to have more negotiating power on everything from the budget to enforcement to policy oversight.
So the trends overall are uneven, with a lot for concern and also promising technology and policy momentum still in effect. 2019 could also greatly change this picture, with a potentially slowing economy and more private sector innovation on clean technology.
Overall, those who care about these issues have a lot to digest and ponder this holiday season, along with the cookies. See you in 2019!
California has officially launched its “net zero” requirements for new homes, which will mandate rooftop solar or the equivalent for new residential construction. Marketplace on NPR covered the story, including an interview with me:
As I blogged previously, the edict comes not without controversy, particularly from economists convinced that utility-scale solar PV is more cost-effective than the rooftop, distributed type. Still, the mandate has flexibility along these lines and promotes other cost-effective forms of distributed energy, such as community solar and on-site energy storage.
And as California pioneers this approach, we’ll soon have data on how effective it will be, potentially as a model (or lesson) for other jurisdictions contemplating the adoption of similar programs.
UC Berkeley and UCLA Schools of Law are today releasing a new report, A New Solar Landscape, which identifies key reforms for California to enact at the state, regional, and local level to increase the pace and optimal siting of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) development. With the passage of SB 100 (de León, 2018), California now requires electric utilities to obtain 60 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045. To meet these goals, the report recommends that state leaders:
- Encourage development of county-level landscape plans by linking them to incentives like expedited review under the California Environmental Quality Act.
- Ensure that project benefits flow first to communities most immediately affected by development.
- Increase support for transmission infrastructure located in areas appropriate for solar development.
- Create a consolidated, statewide zoning and planning data resource.
The report is sponsored by Bank of America and informed by two expert stakeholder convenings facilitated by the law schools.
Utility-scale solar PV facilities—large panel arrays that generate power to sell into the electrical grid—are the most economical method of delivering the large quantities of power needed to satisfy California’s renewables portfolio standard (RPS). Solar energy is the most significant source of renewable energy in California, accounting for over one-third of all renewable power generated in 2017, and well over half of total generating capacity. As solar prices continue to fall, many experts agree that solar will play an even greater role in California’s achievement of future renewables targets, potentially constituting up to 95 percent of new generation.
But these projects, often located in rural areas, can face significant barriers to obtaining the local approvals necessary to begin development, potentially hindering climate progress. To address issues such as a lack of local buy-in to proposed projects and a lack of coordination among local and state planners, the report proposes policies such as:
- Quantifying the total amount of land needed for solar PV facilities in order to meet the state’s climate goals, and communicating this information to local communities where the facilities might be located;
- Preparing solar PV permitting guidebooks that clarify local requirements for developers and help residents understand the process;
- Increasing coordination between state and utility electrical transmission planners and local governments responsible for project approvals; and
- Encouraging community benefit agreements that guarantee local benefits in connection with new solar PV developments.
These recommendations, among many others described in A New Solar Landscape, can help California’s policymakers, local governments, and solar industry leaders develop a county-level landscape planning system that accounts for and promotes state renewable energy targets, environmental conservation and land preservation goals, and community development needs.
For more details, download the report here.
Some big wins for California (and therefore national) climate policy last night:
- Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom is elected governor, which means the state will continue its climate leadership on various policy fronts
- Prop. 6 loses, which would have repealed the gas tax increase and meant less funding for transit going forward
- Prop. 1 wins, which could provide more money for affordable housing in infill areas, reducing driving miles as a result
- The Democrats win the U.S. House of Representatives, which has a host of implications:
- Oversight of the U.S. Departments of Energy, Interior, and Transportation, plus E.P.A., which have all issued various regulations that hurt climate goals in the state
- Potentially more funding in future budget bills for crucial transit infrastructure, including high speed rail
- Potentially more funding and fiscal support for clean tech, like renewables, energy storage and electric vehicles, depending on how budget negotiations proceed
- Oregon Governor Kate Brown wins re-election, which means that state is well-positioned to adopt cap-and-trade next year, making it the first U.S. state to link to California’s program and potentially creating a multi-state building block for an eventual national carbon trading program
And on the housing front, Governor-elect Newsom has set ambitious goals for building more homes in the state, which if done in infill areas could bring crucial climate and air pollution benefits from reduced driving per capita. Pro-housing “YIMBY” candidates also bolstered their ranks in state government, with the election of former Obama campaign staffer Buffy Wicks to the Berkeley Assembly district.
Setbacks nationally (beyond continued Republican gains in the U.S. Senate) included the defeat of some state ballot initiatives, including a carbon tax in Washington, an anti-fracking measure in Colorado, and a renewable portfolio initiative in Arizona — though Nevada voters did embrace a 50% renewable target by 2030 at their polls.
All in all, a positive night for climate policy in California and beyond.
Rural America has been falling behind urban America for decades, in terms of economic productivity and population growth. The worsening divide has manifested in cultural and political disruption nationwide. What role can climate policy play to help repair the inequity and hollowing out of our rural places?
My colleague Dan Farber describes the stark situation in Legal Planet:
According to Brookings researchers, the 53 largest metros account for over 95% of the nation’s population growth and 73% of the employment gains since 2010. Rural areas—those with no metros over 250,000 –are losing population and account for a declining share of the national economy. In other words, Brooking says, “9 percent of the population lives in smaller metros that are stagnant or slipping as a group and another 14 percent in rural places that are almost all declining.” It’s not hard to see why people are unhappy.
He then cites some of the ways that climate and environmental policy could help. First, rural areas will be disproportionately affected by a changing climate, particularly to agriculture. So they may be amenable to policies that address these impacts. Second, while they are not as affected by air pollution, drinking water contamination is a factor. So policies that bolster safe drinking water could be winners.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, clean energy policies could usher in a “Green New Deal” for rural America that boosts local jobs and economic development. That means jobs installing, constructing and managing renewable energy facilities, both small- and large-scale, plus related energy storage facilities. Energy retrofits of existing buildings can boost local contractor opportunities. Zero-emission vehicle technologies like battery electrics mean people can fuel their vehicles with local clean electricity instead of with the global commodity of oil. Those oil and gas purchases otherwise enrich far-off corporations and nations, representing a failure to circulate and invest that money locally. Natural and working landscapes in rural areas could also potentially receive carbon offset funding to be preserved as carbon sinks.
It would be a winning climate recipe that could also have the benefit of addressing the extreme inequality in the country. The politics, economy and global climate could all come out ahead with a Green New Deal.
Solar panel technology is often touted as a solution for rural villagers in developing countries who need access to electricity. And certainly the panels, combined with batteries and energy efficient appliances and lighting, can be a solid, emission-free solution for areas too far away to connect to regional grids.
But what if these villagers don’t actually want the panels? That was the case in rural Rajasthan, India, when the national government tried to introduce subsidized microgrids. UC Berkeley researchers at the Energy Institute at Haas were there to study the program and described the source of the opposition:
Many villagers were holding out for “real” electricity. In some cases, local politicians had made election promises that a connection to the centralized grid was imminent. Legitimately, the Government of India has made truly impressive strides towards its promise to provide electricity access for all. Although the fine print of this pledge leaves many households in the dark, the promise of relatively cheap conventional grid power was enough to dissuade many potential microgrid customers.
Households also balked at the price of the Gram Power system. Recall that the Gram Power connection fee was approximately $20. To put this in perspective, the average income among households in the villages that adopted microgrids was around $110 per month. Also, the subsidized per kWh charge for grid power for poor rural customers is less than 5 INR. To cover expected costs, Gram Power’s per kWh charge was four times as high!
In sum, it proved very hard—and expensive—to compete with the promise of subsidized grid power.
Making matters worse, the microgrids that were deployed were subject to constant theft by villagers, and the people assigned to crack down on the thieves were often reluctant to do so because they lived with these individuals and didn’t want to create bad relations.
It’s a classic example of the common dysfunction with economic assistance. Affluent outsiders believe they already have a solution to meet the needs of the impoverished villager, and then are shocked when the solutions are rejected or don’t work as planned.
While solar technology has clear benefits, a better way to start is to ask locals what they want first, and then work to deliver on those requests. Otherwise, the process is backwards and prone to fail.
The critics are out for California’s groundbreaking climate and energy goals. Cal Matters (and former Sacramento Bee) columnist Dan Walters criticizes the state’s new 100% renewable energy and carbon neutrality goals by 2045:
It’s theoretically possible to build enough solar and windmill farms to [achieve a 100% greenhouse gas-free grid], albeit at immense cost, but there’s a corollary problem. They mostly generate during daylight hours, so having their power available 24 hours a day would require huge amounts of storage, presumably in massive battery banks.
Battery technology hasn’t advanced to that stage yet, at least at a viable cost. After Brown signed the 2045 legislation, Moody’s, the big credit rating organization, called it a “credit negative” for the state’s electrical utilities, citing battery storage capacity.
Walters fails to acknowledge here that “energy storage” to capture surplus renewables includes a diverse array of technologies beyond just batteries. Furthermore, with the carbon-free target date of 2045 still a generation away, industry has plenty of time to innovate in response to this challenge. We’ve already seen battery prices decline about 80% in 10 years. So why use today’s numbers to criticize a critical long-term mandate?
Walters then attacks California’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) goals:
There are only about 200,000 ZEVs on the road now, so replacing all gasoline- and diesel-fueled cars at $30,000 each by 2045 would cost California motorists (and/or taxpayers) about a trillion dollars, or an average of $37 billion a year.
Again, Walters refuses to assume any cost decreases in the price of ZEVs by 2045, or the availability of inexpensive used vehicles in the meantime. This flies in the face of price trends to date. Walters also neglects to mention the fuel and maintenance savings from these vehicles.
Finally, he criticizes the push for electrification of transportation based on how much more power the state will need to deliver:
Driving 100 miles in a ZEV consumes 30 kilowatt-hours of electric power, according to the federal government. Therefore, assuming they were still traveling 330 billion miles each year, recharging 30 million ZEVs would expand annual electric power consumption from 300 terawatt-hours to at least 400, and that extra juice also would have to come from solar, wind and other renewable resources.
Moreover, since the ZEVs would be mostly recharged at night, the carbon-free electrical grid would need even more battery storage to keep them running.
Fun numbers, indeed.
Walters omits some key details. First, the state also has a goal of increasing energy efficiency, including a doubling of efficiency in existing buildings by 2030, which would reduce energy demand overall. Second, state leaders are trying to reduce driving miles per capita by investing in more transit, walking and biking infrastructure, while attempting to build more homes close to jobs and transit. If successful by 2045, driving miles would decrease, along with projected energy demand. Finally, state regulators are pushing for electricity rates that will encourage more daytime charging, to avoid the problem Walters cites.
Overall, Walters’ entire analysis fails to factor in the cost of inaction. What about the public health impacts of more pollution? What about the cost of addressing climate impacts, such as more fires, sea level rise, and droughts?
Walters raises some legitimate questions, but his analysis in response is selective and incomplete.
Tonight on City Visions, I’ll report on the highlights from the Global Climate Action Summit last week in San Francisco. Among the many major announcements were California’s new commitments to a 100% clean electricity grid and to carbon neutrality by 2045.
As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in California, how will the transportation industry respond to the challenge to become fossil free? Join my co-host Joseph Pace and these guests:
- Sam Arons, Director of Sustainability at Lyft
- Holly Gordon, Sustainability Group Manager at BART
- Ellen Greenberg, Deputy Director for Sustainability at Caltrans
- Jonathan Levy, VP of Strategic Initiatives at EVgo
Tonight’s show is the second in our three-part series on climate change. You can listen live on 91.7FM in the San Francisco Bay Area or on the web. Please tune in and ask questions!
KTVU News in the San Francisco Bay Area covered the story last night of California’s new legislation requiring a 100% greenhouse gas-free grid by 2045, including an interview with me:
Governor Brown today signed SB 100 to put California on a path to achieve a carbon-free electricity grid by 2045. I’ll be interviewing bill author and candidate for U.S. Senate State Senator Kevin De Leon on tonight’s City Visions at 7pm, KALW 91.7 FM.
We’ll also discuss the Global Climate Action Summit this week in San Francisco, hosted by California Governor Jerry Brown. The Summit will highlight achievements from around the world as policymakers, businesses leaders and grassroots organizations share the ways they’re working together to achieve the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
Joining me in the studio will be:
- Sen. Kevin de León – California State Senator representing District 24 in Los Angeles
- Secretary Matthew Rodriquez – California Secretary for Environmental Protection
- Louise Bedsworth – Executive Director for the California Strategic Growth Council
This show will be the first of a three-part series on California’s groundbreaking clean energy policies and the fight against climate change. Tune in with your questions! You can also live-stream or listen to a recorded version of the show afterwards.
